The February 2 online edition of Fortune magazine features an AP report on the February 2 meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio
and Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino. The Fortune article states that following the meeting, Mulino announced Panama would not renew contracts
related to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China’s growing commercial ties with Panama had been a sore point for former President Trump, who,
not long after his election, remarked that China’s influence was unacceptable given the strategic importance of the Panama Canal to the U.S. He also
suggested that control of the canal should never have been returned to Panama.
Trump’s warnings to Panama were accompanied by threats of U.S. military intervention. Panama was not the only country to face such threats. Canada,
Mexico, Greenland, and later Colombia also learned that President Trump was demanding a relationship bordering on fealty.
In December, I read several analyses arguing that Trump’s rhetoric about Canada as the 51st state, buying Greenland, and retaking direct control of the
Panama Canal should not be dismissed as incoherent ramblings. Instead, these moves reflect a U.S. effort to recalibrate its geopolitical strategy by
focusing on its immediate sphere of influence—the Americas—a 21st-century version of the Monroe Doctrine. This shift is seen as a response to setbacks
elsewhere: the costly failure of its war against Russia and the weakening of NATO, the decline of Israel and the rise of Iran and Yemen in West Asia,
and China’s increasing technological, scientific, and military advancements.
As part of this new U.S. policy, various countries are falling in line under direct American pressure. Colombia relented and allowed the U.S. to send deportees
back via military transport, despite calling it a humiliation. Canada and Mexico made concessions to delay tariffs, each affected by unique economic
vulnerabilities—Canada’s deindustrialization and Mexico’s role as the U.S.-Canada workshop under NAFTA. Panama is withdrawing from the Belt and Road
Initiative (raising questions about Mexico’s canal project), and there are reports that Greenland and Denmark are considering certain U.S. requests
regarding Greenland. The dominoes are falling. An early 20th-century American president summed up this strategy: “Walk softly, but carry a big stick.”
